Saturday, June 19, 2010
Cleo is now a Huffington Post blogger :-)
Cleo's first HuffPo blog entry went up today. You can see it here. Leave a comment and let her know what you think
Video of Woodrow Wilson Center event Backdraft: The Conflict Potential of Climate Mitigation and Adaptation
On June 10, at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington, DC, Cleo joined Alexander Carius, co-founder and managing director of Adelphi Research and Adelphi Consult, Stacy VanDeveer of the University of New Hampshire, and Geoff Dabelko of Environmental Change and Security Program to discuss the unintended security consequences of climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies.
The wide-ranging discussion covered everything from Copenhagen to Rare Earth. Said Cleo: “We need to blow open the box on how complicated these problems are. We need as many different people involved and as many different sorts of solutions as possible.”
To read a write up of the event, click here.
To see the video, click here.
The wide-ranging discussion covered everything from Copenhagen to Rare Earth. Said Cleo: “We need to blow open the box on how complicated these problems are. We need as many different people involved and as many different sorts of solutions as possible.”
To read a write up of the event, click here.
To see the video, click here.
Video of International Institute for Strategic Studies session on Climate Change and Conflict – A net assessment of the risks to international security presented by climate change
On May 28, at the European Commission’s headquarters in Brussels, Cleo joined Lieutenant Colonel Ian Astley, of the Global Strategic Trends Programme, UK Ministry of Defense’s Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre and Jeffrey Mazo, the IISS Research Fellow for Environmental Security and Science Policy for presentations and discussions about the security risks of environmental change.
To see a write up of the event, and for a link to the video, click here.
To see a write up of the event, and for a link to the video, click here.
Profile of Cleo Paskal (with interview) in the Toronto Star
Antonia Zerbisias, the great Toronto Star columnist interviewed Cleo before her IdeaCity talk. An excerpt:
Q: When you say that the world map will be redrawn, how much upheaval will there be?
A: If the U.S. doesn't start to deal with the domestic disruption, then I am very concerned that it will fragment and destabilize. If that happens, the world will be severely affected.
For more cheerful news, click here.
Review of Global Warring in the Malaysia Sun
A just published review of Global Warring in the Malaysia Sun includes:
[Paskal's] closing, after many well argued presentations says that with “all the threads together, the world of tomorrow looks chaotic and violent. Even more so than usual. And even more than expected.” Our current “social, political, security and economic structures [are built] on the assumption that there are certain geophysical and climatic constants to act as a foundation. There aren’t. There never have been. And there never will be.” So now you can go read the apocalyptic and survivalist authors, as this relatively calm academic analysis arrives at a pretty gloomy and scary picture.
For more, click here.
[Paskal's] closing, after many well argued presentations says that with “all the threads together, the world of tomorrow looks chaotic and violent. Even more so than usual. And even more than expected.” Our current “social, political, security and economic structures [are built] on the assumption that there are certain geophysical and climatic constants to act as a foundation. There aren’t. There never have been. And there never will be.” So now you can go read the apocalyptic and survivalist authors, as this relatively calm academic analysis arrives at a pretty gloomy and scary picture.
For more, click here.
Monday, May 3, 2010
Review of Global Warring is the cover story for the Montreal Review of Books
Michael Carbert reviewed Global Warring for a cover feature for the Montreal Review of Books (see video of Michael interviewing Cleo below). Some excerpts from the review:
Paskal's goal is not to be alarmist. Instead, she wants to bring attention to the big changes both happening and likely to happen because of a warming planet, and to the simple fact that we need to prepare now for what's coming our way. Global Warring is unique among books on climate change as it eschews a strident tone in favour of a cool assessment of the changes to come, their likely outcomes, and the difficult choices we presently face...
Thus Global Warring, far from being simply another Al Gore-type warning about the peril we face, examines the likely future outcomes in terms of geopolitics, territorial sovereignty, trade, and national security. Thankfully, Paskal goes beyond a simplistic doom-and-gloom analysis that promises more disasters and more suffering. While increased chaos and conflict is likely, Paskal highlights the fact that options also exist and that few of the questions being raised by our shifting environmental conditions are anywhere close to being resolved...
Accessible, lively, and at times chilling, Global Warring is a book offering much-needed insight into a future where nothing can be taken for granted. With an eye-opening examination of the Hurricane Katrina disaster and its aftermath, a cogent analysis of China's increasing global influence, and convincing arguments in favour of overhauling infrastructure and possibly even abandoning low-lying cities in Europe and North America, Paskal's book is timely and necessary reading. It's difficult to shake the idea that this is one of those books that needs to be read by as many people as possible, as soon as possible, because the near future promises to be extremely interesting, to put it mildly.
Or, as Paskal puts it, "These are the good old days."
For more, click here.
Paskal's goal is not to be alarmist. Instead, she wants to bring attention to the big changes both happening and likely to happen because of a warming planet, and to the simple fact that we need to prepare now for what's coming our way. Global Warring is unique among books on climate change as it eschews a strident tone in favour of a cool assessment of the changes to come, their likely outcomes, and the difficult choices we presently face...
Thus Global Warring, far from being simply another Al Gore-type warning about the peril we face, examines the likely future outcomes in terms of geopolitics, territorial sovereignty, trade, and national security. Thankfully, Paskal goes beyond a simplistic doom-and-gloom analysis that promises more disasters and more suffering. While increased chaos and conflict is likely, Paskal highlights the fact that options also exist and that few of the questions being raised by our shifting environmental conditions are anywhere close to being resolved...
Accessible, lively, and at times chilling, Global Warring is a book offering much-needed insight into a future where nothing can be taken for granted. With an eye-opening examination of the Hurricane Katrina disaster and its aftermath, a cogent analysis of China's increasing global influence, and convincing arguments in favour of overhauling infrastructure and possibly even abandoning low-lying cities in Europe and North America, Paskal's book is timely and necessary reading. It's difficult to shake the idea that this is one of those books that needs to be read by as many people as possible, as soon as possible, because the near future promises to be extremely interesting, to put it mildly.
Or, as Paskal puts it, "These are the good old days."
For more, click here.
Sunday, May 2, 2010
Review of Global Warring and Interview with Cleo in the Calgary Herald
Trent Edwards of the Calgary Herald reviewed Global Warring and interviewed Cleo for the paper. An excerpt:
Cleo Paskal may be an academic, but her new book is frighteningly practical.
Frightening, because Global Warring: How Environmental, Economic And Political Crises Will Redraw The World Map (Key Porter Books, $32.95) rings the alarm for all of us about the environmental changes that have the potential to devastate the world during the 21st century....
Paskal, a Canadian geopolitics expert and foreign correspondent who lives in London, England, spent a decade researching her thought-provoking book.
In it, she shows just how interdependent countries have become, and how a fast-changing environment will test nations' ability to adapt, likely causing unexpected shifts in global economic, political and security landscapes along with the more obvious changes in the physical landscape.
She delves into problem areas that could start future conflicts, such as access to water and resources in Asia, economic trends that are shifting the balance of power (such as China's policy of nationalistic capitalism) and geopolitical realignments (such as the burgeoning strategic partnership between the U.S. and India)....
Paskal's book isn't all doom and gloom. She offers helpful advice for how to prepare for, mitigate and recover from the coming changes in the environment.
To read the rest of the review, and the interview, click here.
Review of Global Warring invades Canada
Jonathan Montpetit, of the Canadian Press, wrote an article about Global Warring that was picked up all over the country, including Maclean's. It starts:
It is a military truism that an army ought to stand its ground.
But what if the ground it's standing on is melting, becoming prone to floods, or is outright disappearing?
Climate change is turning conventional military wisdom on its head, something Canada has been at pains to grasp, according to Cleo Paskal, author of "Global Warring: How Environmental, Economic, and Political Crises Will Redraw the World Map."
The book, which came out earlier this year, has created a storm, no pun intended, in policy circles. It has found its way onto reading lists at the U.S. Army War College, and the Montreal-based author is now being tapped as a consultant for the U.S. Department of Energy.
Review of Global Warring in Environment Conflict and Cooperation
Achim Maas of Adelphi wrote a nice review of Global Warring for Environment Conflict and Cooperation. An Excerpt:
The author’s analysis of the potential developments for the Pacific Island states offers some interesting new perspectives. While these states are almost exclusively recognized as places with future "climate refugees," Paskal emphasizes the political implications of climate change for the region: currently, countries like China, Australia and Taiwan compete for the island states’ favour by providing financial and economic support. Thereby, the author argues, they hope to obtain the support of the island states in international organizations or secure access to the region’s vast maritime territories, which not only include rich fishing grounds but would also open up new opportunities for further economic exploitation, such as seabed mining.
For more, click here.
The author’s analysis of the potential developments for the Pacific Island states offers some interesting new perspectives. While these states are almost exclusively recognized as places with future "climate refugees," Paskal emphasizes the political implications of climate change for the region: currently, countries like China, Australia and Taiwan compete for the island states’ favour by providing financial and economic support. Thereby, the author argues, they hope to obtain the support of the island states in international organizations or secure access to the region’s vast maritime territories, which not only include rich fishing grounds but would also open up new opportunities for further economic exploitation, such as seabed mining.
For more, click here.
Friday, April 16, 2010
Review of Global Warring on New Security Beat
Rachel Posner of CSIS reviews Global Warring for New Security Beat, and seems to like it :) , writing in part:
Paskal eloquently explains the science behind climate change in layman’s terms, breaking down incredibly complex issues and drawing connections across seemingly disparate challenges, such as rising food prices, degrading energy infrastructure, and growing water scarcity. She is a skilled storyteller, using memorable vignettes (and at times even humor) to effectively illustrate these climate-related complexities.
But what truly sets Paskal’s book apart from a number of recent works on this topic is her ability to elucidate the major power shifts that are directly related to today’s climate and resource stresses. “Environmental change is the wild card in the current high-stakes game of geopolitics,” she writes (p. 249).
To read more, click here.
Paskal eloquently explains the science behind climate change in layman’s terms, breaking down incredibly complex issues and drawing connections across seemingly disparate challenges, such as rising food prices, degrading energy infrastructure, and growing water scarcity. She is a skilled storyteller, using memorable vignettes (and at times even humor) to effectively illustrate these climate-related complexities.
But what truly sets Paskal’s book apart from a number of recent works on this topic is her ability to elucidate the major power shifts that are directly related to today’s climate and resource stresses. “Environmental change is the wild card in the current high-stakes game of geopolitics,” she writes (p. 249).
To read more, click here.
Article: Strange case of the disappearing islands (New Zealand Herald)
Cleo Paskal wrote a feature for the New Zealand Herald on some of the potential legal and geopolitical implications of islands disappearing because of subsidence/rising sea levels/etc., something that is already being seen and will become a critical problem in Pacific.
The general idea is to try to ensure that, when possible, those who have to be relocated are seen as a benefit to the host country, not a liability. In some cases, this might be able to be done by using the value of national sovereignty to "pay" for relocation.
An excerpt from the feature:
The general idea is to try to ensure that, when possible, those who have to be relocated are seen as a benefit to the host country, not a liability. In some cases, this might be able to be done by using the value of national sovereignty to "pay" for relocation.
An excerpt from the feature:
In that model, neighbouring India, for example, would take in the Maldivian immigrants in exchange for India being able to extend its national waters to include Maldivian waters.
The proceeds from this extended EEZ (fisheries rights, seabed mining, etc) could be used to resettle and set up a trust fund for Maldivian immigrants, along the lines of land claim settlements in Canada. Maldivians could also get preferential access to the waters for economic development and, should the islands ever re-emerge, resettlement could be possible. The advantage for India would be an orderly settlement of relatively wealthy immigrants, and an extension of its coastal security zone.
This model might also be applicable in the Pacific. For example, if as the scientists tell us, Tuvalu will eventually need to be evacuated, and New Zealand takes in the bulk of the refugees, that patch of ocean could be administered from New Zealand by and for the benefit of the immigrants, affording resettlement money and economic prospects associated with their old homeland for those who want it.
The administration could be done through a sort of combination government-in-exile and trust.
It is worth noting that the host country need not be New Zealand or Australia. Given the geostrategic importance of the region, a "bidding war" for the immigrants might ensue with countries such as China and Taiwan looking to take in the immigrants in exchange for increased access to the region.
While this might seem far-fetched, what are the alternatives? If accepting the reality that some countries might need to be completely evacuated, a way forward of some sort will need to be found if a free-for-all is to be avoided. If left to the crisis point, it could end up in completely new and potentially undesirable forms of sovereignty.
For example, while the rest of Tuvalu is evacuated, one of the islands could be built up. That would probably qualify it as an "artificial island", affording it only a 500m safety zone, not the 200 nautical mile EEZ, but it would be enough to ensure statehood. That statehood could then be sold off to corporations who could then literally become sovereign, writing laws under which they flag ships, bank, run telecoms, sell arms, etc, with the impunity and immunity of statehood. This could have far-reaching security implications.
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