Review of Global Warring by Smart Energy Cycle

Smart Energy Cycle reviewed Global Warring and seemed to like it. An excerpt (for more click here):


Books about the environment are more often than not filled with exaggerations or filled with self-righteousness, but Cleo Paskal has provided one of the more comprehensive and balanced views on the real significance of environmental change.
Global Warring is a thought-provoking account into the future of international politics. We really need to wake up to the signs of impending change instead of taking our ecosystem for granted. It is important to note that Paskal frequently uses the phrase “environmental change,” presumably to convey an appropriately broader term than the oft-used “climate change” or “global warming.”
The reader gets a crash-course in geopolitics and views problems at both the micro- and macro- levels.

Video: Cleo Paskal on Copenhagen and Geopolitics

And the discussion continues here on Keith Kloor's blog.

Article: WikiLeaks: New Zealand Sells Itself as "a more Pacific country" than Australia - And As Key to Pacific Security. US Buys It. (Huffington Post)

In her latest Huffington Post blog entry, Cleo writes about what Wikileaks has to say about the security situation in the Pacific. An excerpt:

In a time when the Pacific is getting more attention from Washington, Wellington's role in advising on the region is becoming more valued.

This is potentially problematic in two ways.

First, NZ's information and advice may not always be as reliable as thought. There are examples of failure to predict/manage critical situations. For example, mismanagement of the Fiji coup by NZ/Australia resulted in pushing Fiji closer towards the China camp.

Similarly, in Tonga, New Zealand has been backing the 'pro-democracy' movement. That group triggered riots in 2006 that burned down much of the capital city. Following the riots, failure by NZ to substantially participate in the reconstruction resulted in Tonga having to take out a debilitating loan from China. The fact that a group supported by NZ as pro-democracy resulted in the country becoming indebted to an authoritarian country is a small indication of the something going wrong.

Another problem is the character of NZ's engagement of the region (which can affect intelligence gathering, analysis, and operations).

There is a perception of a pervasive NZ 'we know better' attitude towards Pacific island nations. For example, NZ is proposing sending a team to train the new Tongan parliamentarians in governance, in spite of the fact that the Tongan system is fundamentally different than the NZ one.

Second, NZ's interests are not necessarily US interests. NZ has its own range of national priorities and one would expect it to put those above the interests of partner states, no matter how close the relationship.

Article: Kingdom of Tonga, The Pacific, And Geopolitics, part 1 (Tonga Chronicle)

Part One of Cleo's series on Tonga, the Pacific, and geopolitics has appeared in the Tonga Chronicle. An excerpt:

While many in the region consider themselves a backwater, that is inaccurate. From a geopolitical perspective, the nations of the Pacific offer (among other things):

• Sea-lanes and ports in relatively calm waters (increasingly important as China in particular increases trade with South America);
• Access to fisheries (something increasingly important as the Atlantic is fished out);
• Agricultural exports (especially important, as concerns over food security increase in    countries such as China);
• Unknown but potentially valuable underwater resources;
• Geostrategic military basing sites;
• Crucial votes in international fora (Pacific Island countries represent around a dozen votes in the UN – a substantial voting block).

Given what is at stake, other nations are understandably keen to take advantage of discontent with traditional partners to advance their own position in the Pacific.

For more, click here. 

Article: Wikilieaks NZ Cables Mention Tonga (Tonga Chronicle)

Cleo's article on Wikileaks New Zealand cables has appeared in the Tonga Chronicle. An excerpt:

Similarly, in the 2007 cable, NZ Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade Deputy Secretary Caroline Forsyth “offered that New Zealand sees an arc of instability in Melanesia, as there is a great deal of money but little to no capacity to use it wisely. The Solomon Islands are under control at the moment but there are still significant problems in terms of governance and corruption. The GNZ is weighing the necessary structural changes needed to make a long-lasting improvement in the SI society so that RAMSI security forces might depart.”

The sort of ‘engagement’ that results in one nation sure thinking it can, and should, make “long-lasting improvements” in another nation’s society does little to build mutual trust and respect.

For more, click here.

Article: Pacific Geopolitics (Tonga Chronicle)

Cleo's latest Tonga Chronicle column is about how foreign policy decision permeate life in the Kingdom. An excerpt:

Nuku’alofa, Kingdom of Tonga – All Tongans feel the effects of foreign policy, whether it is when shopping for New Zealand products in Chinese shops, or applying for loans at an Australian bank, or paying for energy imports from the Middle East, or going to a hospital built by Japan, or having to fly through Auckland to visit relatives in the US.

Foreign policy decisions that affect Tonga are made all the time. But often, those decisions are not made in Tonga. Someone in New Zealand decides how many Tongans get seasonal worker visas. Someone in Australia sets import regulations that can limit Tongan exports. Someone at the World Bank writes conditions for funding that will keep the Tongan government solvent. Someone in Beijing decided the loan for rebuilding downtown would be paid back in Chinese currency.

Every day, and in many ways, foreign policy pervades, and shapes, life in Tonga. But, often, Tonga isn’t in control of that policy.

For more, click here.

Article: Cleo Paskal on commodities versus strategic assets (or how to win friends and influence countries -- with wheat)

Cleo Paskal analyses Canada's position as a global 'commodities' larder for the latest issue of Canadian Geographic. An excerpt (for the whole article, click here): 

Around the world, nations concerned about existing and worsening resource scarcity are making moves to secure supply. Populations facing hardship may be looking for new places to move, as refugees either after an extreme event or because of gradual erosion of stability in their home countries. And that is sure to affect the way they look at Canada.Some have been planning for scarcity for a long time. 
China’s one-child policy, implemented in 1979, followed a series of famines and was, at least in part, designed to reduce demand on resources. China’s willingness to implement such an emotionally, socially and politically difficult policy is a small indication of the seriousness with which it is also trying to secure supply. For example, along with other countries concerned about food supply, such as Saudi Arabia and South Korea, China is investing heavily in farmland in places like Africa. Often, the farms are run by Chinese nationals and the produce is destined for Chinese markets. And what scarce resources China does have, such as rare earth metals, are being kept in the country by the imposition of export quotas and high export tariffs.
The crux of it is that many of the things we currently view as commodities — say wheat and metals — are already seen as strategic assets by less fortunate nations. When something is considered a strategic asset, different economics and politics apply. A bushel of wheat isn’t viewed just as a bushel of wheat but as an essential component for keeping people from rising up against the government. During the food price spike of 2008, for instance, China was very quick to increase food subsidies to that most restive group, students. And in August, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin announced a temporary ban on grain exports because of a severe drought that is expected to reduce the harvest by more than 20 million tonnes.
Canada may think of itself as a commodities nation, but others see us as a strategic-assets storehouse.
The question is, Will the Canadian government incorporate the increasing strategic value of our commodities into the way we engage with the rest of the world? Will we continue to sell off our storehouse to the spot-price highest bidder? Or will we try to plan for the longer term, develop a strategy and perhaps use our relative abundance to help allies get through the coming scarcities — in effect using our resources to increase our own security?
Parts of the Canadian government, including Public Safety Canada, have been considering these issues, and in certain sectors — in particular water — NGOs are raising strategic concerns. But we have a long way to go. What other nations already understand is that in an increasingly unstable world, Canada’s wheat, livestock, water, oil and land aren’t just commodities — they are stability. And that may soon become the rarest commodity of all.

Video: Hammer Forum, Los Angeles. Cleo Paskal and Jeff Biggers moderated by Ian Masters

Cleo presents second, after Jeff Biggers. But the interesting bit is the extended Q&A afterwards. For more on the Hammer Forum, click here.

Video: Visit to EastWest Institute in New York City

Cleo Paskal visited with the fine folks at the EastWest Institute in New York City for bagels and a most interesting discussion. A write-up of the visit can be seen here. A video interview she recorded while there is below. 

Review of Global Warring and Interview with Cleo in the Calgary Herald

Trent Edwards of the Calgary Herald reviewed Global Warring and interviewed Cleo for the paper. An excerpt:


Cleo Paskal may be an academic, but her new book is frighteningly practical.
Frightening, because Global Warring: How Environmental, Economic And Political Crises Will Redraw The World Map (Key Porter Books, $32.95) rings the alarm for all of us about the environmental changes that have the potential to devastate the world during the 21st century....
Paskal, a Canadian geopolitics expert and foreign correspondent who lives in London, England, spent a decade researching her thought-provoking book.
In it, she shows just how interdependent countries have become, and how a fast-changing environment will test nations' ability to adapt, likely causing unexpected shifts in global economic, political and security landscapes along with the more obvious changes in the physical landscape.
She delves into problem areas that could start future conflicts, such as access to water and resources in Asia, economic trends that are shifting the balance of power (such as China's policy of nationalistic capitalism) and geopolitical realignments (such as the burgeoning strategic partnership between the U.S. and India)....
Paskal's book isn't all doom and gloom. She offers helpful advice for how to prepare for, mitigate and recover from the coming changes in the environment.


To read the rest of the review, and the interview, click here.

Review of Global Warring on New Security Beat

Rachel Posner of CSIS reviews Global Warring for New Security Beat, and seems to like it :) , writing in part:


Paskal eloquently explains the science behind climate change in layman’s terms, breaking down incredibly complex issues and drawing connections across seemingly disparate challenges, such as rising food prices, degrading energy infrastructure, and growing water scarcity. She is a skilled storyteller, using memorable vignettes (and at times even humor) to effectively illustrate these climate-related complexities.

But what truly sets Paskal’s book apart from a number of recent works on this topic is her ability to elucidate the major power shifts that are directly related to today’s climate and resource stresses. “Environmental change is the wild card in the current high-stakes game of geopolitics,” she writes (p. 249).


To read more, click here.

Article and video on Cleo Paskal's talk at the New America Foundation, Washington, DC

In March, Cleo gave a 90 minute presentation on her book and research to a packed room at the New America Foundation in Washington, DC. The NAF's Kalie Pierce wrote that: 

Paskal began her talk by stating a simple but powerful argument: environmental change will have dramatic political, economic and security consequences for us all. She discussed how environmental changes would pose a challenge to physical, services, and legal infrastructure in the future. [...] Paskal concluded her talk by warning of the many geopolitical conflicts that could arise over something as seemingly apolitical as changing environmental circumstances.

To see and read more, click here.

Review of Global Warring in Nature

Keith Kloor reviewed Global Warring for Nature and seemed to like it.  :)


 A sample quote:

Paskal "presents a fascinating geopolitical chessboard, on which the United States and the European Union face off against China and Russia as climate change takes hold. If Western policymakers want to see how this game is playing out, they ought to read this book."

To read more, click here. 

Report in the Concordia Journal about talk by Cleo Paskal

Anna Sarkissian of the Concordia Journal wrote a feature on Cleo Paskal's talk at the John Molson School of Business, delving in to the topic of environmental change and geopolitics. It begins:


Building a solar-powered building on a flood plain? Not so smart. Developing natural gas installations at sea level? Could be tricky. Constructing oil rigs directly in the path of hurricanes? Sounds like a recipe for disaster

To read more, click here. 

Report on Cleo Paskal's talk at Concordia University in The Concordian

Renee Giblin wrote a report for The Concordian on about Cleo Paskal's talk at David O'Brien Centre for Sustainable Enterprise at the John Molson School of Business. Giblin concludes:


The message Paskal sent last week was clear: with a changing climate comes changing politics. With a shift in political power already afoot, nations stand to be severely affected if they neglect to evolve along with the physical environment that surrounds them.


To read more, click here.

Alan Hustak Reviews Global Warring and Profiles Cleo Paskal for The Metropolitian

Eminent writer Alan Hustak reviews Global Warring and profiles Cleo Paskal for The Metropolitian. It begins:


Everyone in the non-stop debate on climate change has an opinion, but how much consideration has been given to the potential  seismic shift  in international diplomacy  that can be attributed  to  global warming?  What happens to nation states, to the realignment of political boundaries, and to shifting corporate interests as we become even more dependent on fossil fuels, and as forests disappear, farmland is exhausted and sources of fresh water evaporate?   This month, Veteran Quebec journalist  



Cleo Paskal  raises the ante in the debate with  her book, Global Warring, which makes the  powerful argument that the map of the world as we know it  is about to be redrawn as resource rich countries try to protect their natural sources of energy  and others  aggressively  try to secure new ones.... 




To read more, click here. 

Review of Global Warring and Interview with Cleo Paskal by Patrick Lejtenyi of the Montreal Mirror

The Mirror newspaper in Montreal ran a review of Global Warring sprinkled with some quotes from an interview with Cleo Paskal, giving her instant street cred with procrastinating students across the city. An excerpt:


[...] in Paskal’s new book, Global Warring: How Environmental, Economic and Political Crises Will Redraw the World Map, the changing world is creating a new playing field in which the Great Powers will struggle for power and influence. A cool, clear-eyed analysis of the emerging geopolitics, Global Warring does not engage in climate change-induced scenario speculation nor does it offer emotional appeals to curbing emissions. It simply explains what the new realities are, and what we can do to adapt to them. 

To read more, click here.

Article By Cleo Paskal and Scott Savitt: Copenhagen Consequences for the U.S., China and India

In this commentary for UPI, Cleo Paskal and Scott Savitt analyze what really happened at Copenhagen and why it was a potentially groundbreaking moment in geopolitics.

"Going in to Copenhagen, the “Rashomon” narratives of the conference varied more than many realized. The West primarily thought it was negotiating a trade deal – as evidenced by the drop in EU carbon trading prices after the talks failed to deliver a climate market deal. China was negotiating for a trade deal, but kept options open for larger strategic advantages. And India wanted to drive home big geopolitical points.

"Coming out of Copenhagen, the narrative is clearer: This was geopolitics pure and simple."

Click here to read more....

Interview with Cleo on Zocalo Public Square

Swati Pandey from ZocaloPublicSquare.org interviewed Cleo on the interrelation of the three major shifts happening in the world today: geopolitical, geoeconomic and geophysical. Sample Q&A:

Q. What are the effects now and what are the effects in the future?

A. A lot depends on what the reactions of the different players will be. For example, in the U.S., over 50% of the population lives in areas that are considered coastal. Unless there is a great understanding of what rising sea levels, increasing storm surges, and things like that will do to those areas, it’s going to become increasingly costly, and could have quite a series effect not only on economic development but also on social stability. China has a very serious water supply problem and it also has major infrastructure and industrial areas right on the coast, in a typhoon zone, such as in Shanghai. There are different regions that have different vulnerabilities. What will happen will depend very much on how much of an effort is made to integrate those changes into future planning, and to try to counter the detrimental effects.

We do know certain things are going to become increasingly problematic. Energy supplies will be increasingly compromised by environmental change. The offshore platforms in the Gulf of Mexico are very likely to face more shut downs due to increasing storm activity or intensity. Hydroelectric installations are designed for very special operating parameters — certain amounts of rainfall, particular river levels, glacier melts. All of that is in flux now. Nuclear stations require an enormous amount of water for cooling. In France, for example, increasingly high temperatures have made it difficult for plants to operate at maximum capacity in the summer. So energy sector disruptions are happening already, and are very likely to accelerate. It’s like putting together pieces of a jigsaw puzzle. We can see certain critical areas being affected but it’s hard to see what the whole picture will be, because so many of the pieces of the puzzle are changing as our reaction to these events changes.

Click here to read more....

Article By Cleo Paskal and Scott Savitt: New Security Beat blog post: The Real Take Home Message From Copenhagen Is Not What You Think

"A fascinating and potentially game-changing geopolitical pas-de-deux unfolded in Copenhagen. The international media and punditocracy christened the U.S. and China the new G2 in reference to the expected preeminent leadership roles the two hold among their respective developed and developing country contingents. What increasingly became clear, however, was that a different G2 was influencing the agenda:China and India."

To read more of the article, click here....