Quoted: NZ risks 'strategic nincompoop' tag with Pacific policy (Scoops BusinessDesk)

By Pattrick Smellie

Feb. 27 (BusinessDesk) - New Zealand risks being seen as a "strategic nincompoop, at best" if it persists with attempts to bind Pacific Island countries into the New Zealand and Australian economies using mechanisms such as the PACER Plus free trade agreement, an analyst with global think-tank Chatham House told a high-powered foreign policy conference in Wellington.

While such an approach may be intended to curb the potential influence of new actors in Oceania, such as China, it risked having the opposite effect, said Cleo Paskal, a Canada-based Chatham House associate fellow in energy, environment and resources policy, 

Her comments come just days before Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern meets her Australian counterpart, Malcolm Turnbull in Sydney before making a tour of the Cook Islands, Niue, Samoa and Tonga early next week.

Ardern addressed the same conference in her first major foreign policy speech, saying New Zealand's international reputation was for speaking with "credibility" and acting with "decency".

On relations with Pacific Island nations, Ardern said "we can do better and we will" to assist countries "where prosperity is threatened by environmental issues and encroachment on fish stocks, as much as by size and isolation". 

Foreign Minister Winston Peters would be outlining the government's thinking on Pacific relations in a speech to the Lowy Institute, in Sydney, on Thursday, ahead of Ardern's meeting with Turnbull on Friday.

However, Paskal argued that one of the centrepieces of Australian and New Zealand policy in Oceania - the PACER Plus free trade agreement - amounted to the kind of manipulation of Pacific Island states that New Zealanders often accused the United States of bringing to bear on New Zealand.

The "incredibly peculiar deal" had been reached by what many had described as "bullying and chequebook diplomacy", with Fiji and Papua New Guinea pulling out, Tonga threatening to leave, and the Federated States of Micronesia - US protectorates - not turning up to last June's signing ceremony.

"Objectively, there are few, if any, good reasons for Pacific Island countries to ratify PACER Plus," Paskal told a session of the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs conference, which was entitled 'Asia-Pacific: Game of Thrones in our Own Backyard'. 

"If we're talking about moral leadership, you really need to take a look at the reality what's going on in the trade negotiations with Pacific Island partners," she said.

She warned that such efforts could backfire and drive Pacific nations into the arms of soft loans from China and other rivals in the region rather than deepen ties to Australasia.

That also risked reducing New Zealand's value to the 'Five Eyes' intelligence-gathering partnership with the US, UK, Canada and Australia, in which New Zealand was tasked with being the primary source of reliable information about the Pacific.

"In the long term, the people of the PICs (Pacific Island countries) will suffer disproportionately, create regional instability, contribute to global disruption, giving openings to China and others, and will fundamentally make New Zealand like a strategic nincompoop at best," she said.

"Times are too tense at the moment for such an obvious and avoidable own goal."

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1802/S00749/nz-risks-strategic-nincompoop-tag-with-pacific-policy.htm

Quoted: The 2018 Camden Conference — A New Player in the Global Security Game — Rising Sea Levels (The Free Press)

by Christine Parrish

Thursday, February 22, 2018 6:52 AM

Melting polar ice, rising sea levels and catastrophic hurricanes are now established factors in national security and foreign policy, according to Cleo Paskal, a policy analyst based at Chatham House in London who researches the security, economic, and political implications of climate change around the world. 

Paskal looked at two major players at the Camden Conference: the U.S. and China.

Airports are typically built on river plains or in flat places that are subject to flooding, said Paskal. As such, American air force bases are increasingly becoming liabilities, not defense installations. This was the case at Keesler Air Force Base during Hurricane Katrina and at other U.S. military bases around the world. A report released to Congress this January showed that over half of the 3,500 U.S. military bases around the world are affected by the changing climate.

The Arctic is becoming increasingly important in global security as melting polar ice opens up the way for shipping. Chinese leaders surprised many security analysts in January when they announced plans to establish a new trade route called the Polar Silk Road across the top of the world — in spite of the fact that China has no territory adjacent to the Arctic. There is no internationally adopted Arctic Treaty in place to stop them, although Arctic powers, including the U.S., are concerned.

Little islands are having big impacts, too. The 200-mile marine Exclusive Economic Zone, or EEZ, gives each small island a big territorial footprint on the globe under the international treaty known as the Law of the Sea.

Right now, the U.S. has the largest EEZ footprint in the Asia Pacific due to its territorial claim to islands. But the Law of the Sea left a big loophole: it didn’t account for rising seas swallowing up islands — something that is currently happening. Will the 200-mile EEZ go down in the drink, too? Maybe. If it does, it will change American influence in the region. 

While islands sink in some places, China is building islands in the South China Sea to capture the territorial claim to the 200-mile EEZ. 

A rock with a hut attached manned by three unlucky Chinese soldiers doesn’t look like part of a grand territorial strategy, but it is. A military installation built on a Chinese-made island at Fiery Cross Reef in the Spratly Islands shows why. 

According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the man-made islands have hardened shelters with retractable roofs for mobile missile launchers, enough hangars to house 28 military planes, and a runway long enough to land a Chinese bomber that could perform combat operations within 3,500 miles of the reclaimed reef.

The islands also overlap territorial claims made by Vietnam and the Philippines.

Without American engagement in the Law of the Sea and the other international agreements, the U.S. is poised to lose territorial advantage and strategic power that will have real consequences for American trade and security, said Paskal. The costs will make their way down to Main Street and American wallets.

https://freepressonline.com/Content/Home/Homepage-Rotator/Article/The-2018-Camden-Conference-A-New-Player-in-the-Global-Security-Game-Rising-Sea-Levels/78/720/57229

Quoted: New World Disorder and America’s future (Camden Herald)

Ron Bancroft covered the 31st Camden Conference for the Camden Herald. He wrote this about Cleo Paskal's presentation:

My personal favorite was Cleo Paskal, a Canadian working on energy and environmental issues at Chatham House in England. Cleo’s specialty is the intersection of geopolitics and the geophysical – think geopolitical implications of Chinese constructing islands out of barren rocks in the Pacific. Cleo had much to offer and she did it in a warmly self-deprecating way. This Canadian certainly endeared herself to us Americans present when she finished one Q&A in which our present administration had taken some heat by saying that we all should remember and be thankful for how much good America has and will continue to contribute to the world. I could have hugged her for that.

For the full article: https://knox.villagesoup.com/p/new-world-disorder-and-americas-future/1726314

Interview: Cleo Paskal on John Batchelor Show with Gordon Chang on The Quad Powers (US-India-Australia-Japan) rattle China.

Video: Camden Conference Panel of All Speakers (Cleo Paskal, Avril Haines, Stephen Walt, Natalie Nougayrede, Thea Mei Lee, Chas Freeman, Jerry Seib, Matthew Goodwin)

Final Panel of All Speakers from Camden Conference on Vimeo.
The 31st Camden Conference
New World Disorder and America’s Future
February 16, 17, 18, 2018

The 2018 Camden Conference explored shifts in global power and the ramifications for major players, particularly China, the US and the nations of Europe, in pursuing their national interests. Our speakers addressed the impact of globalization, the rise of nationalism, transformations in global economies, and the management of a range of future threats such as climate change, population growth, and cyber insecurity. How can the United States remain competitive economically, preserve national security, safeguard American values, and meet dangerous challenges from unstable countries? What role in the world do Americans want for their country?

Video: Camden Conference Panel With Cleo Paskal, Thea Met Lee, Avril Haines, Evan Medeiros and Indira Lakshmanan

Saturday Afternoon Panel from Camden Conference on Vimeo.
The 31st Camden Conference
New World Disorder and America’s Future
February 16, 17, 18, 2018

The 2018 Camden Conference explored shifts in global power and the ramifications for major players, particularly China, the US and the nations of Europe, in pursuing their national interests. Our speakers addressed the impact of globalization, the rise of nationalism, transformations in global economies, and the management of a range of future threats such as climate change, population growth, and cyber insecurity.  How can the United States remain competitive economically, preserve national security, safeguard American values, and meet dangerous challenges from unstable countries? What role in the world do Americans want for their country?

Article: Things can only get better between India and Canada (Sunday Guardian)

By CLEO PASKAL | 17 February, 2018

Ideally, the era of relative neglect is over in both India and Canada. 

On 17 February, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau arrived in India for a week-long visit. He has brought his wife, three children, and some of the 19 Indo-Canadian Members of Parliament elected from his Liberal Party. That includes four Sikh Cabinet Members. Canadian Ministers of Defence, Foreign, and Trade are all a part of the delegation.

It’s a serious delegation, in India for a relatively long visit. Trudeau and his team will try to show their hosts that Canada-India relations extend far beyond the 1.3 million Indo-Canadian Diaspora there, and that they can go much further still.

Getting there, though, may take some handling. In particular, touchy topics will be: Why should India care about Canada? Is Canada doing enough on the Khalistan issue? Is this trip about domestic Canadian politics or international relations?

First, why should India care about Canada? When Modi visited Canada in April 2015, it was the first dedicated visit by an Indian Prime Minister in over four decades. Meanwhile, Trudeau is on his first visit to India since being elected in 2015, while he already visited China (however, his trip there was for only four days). Up to now, there has been a seeming lack of urgency in both capitals in moving forward quickly.

This belies the natural compatibilities of India-Canada relations. There was $8.3 billion in merchandise trade in 2017—there is room for much more, especially in a range of critical commodities and resources (Canada sells everything from pulses to uranium to India) but also in software, aeronautics, power generation, etc. Additionally more Indian parents are opting to send their kids to Canada’s safe and reputable universities, and more techies are looking to Canada rather than south of the border.

National level politics aside, these trends are likely to increase, assuming barriers aren’t put in their way. Ideally, the era of relative neglect is over in both capitals.

That seems to be true on the Canadian side, at least. The length and size of the mission shows how serious Ottawa now is engaging with India. And showing up for a week is certainly a good way to focus the host’s mind. That said, Canada is a bit late beating a path to Delhi. The ground is already well trodden, from Modi’s inauguration with the SAARC leaders, to the recent Republic Day with the ASEAN leaders, and many world leaders in between.

It will be up to Trudeau to show that he is in India not just to please a certain vocal section of his electorate, but rather to build a new relationship with India that benefits all Canadians and Indians. 

So why should India care about Canada when it already has so many potential partners lining up? Apart from the economic compatibilities mentioned above, as the Indo-Pacific grows in importance in India’s strategic outlook, it’s worth remembering that Canada is also a Pacific nation. Additionally, it has very close ties to US, and is a member of Five Eyes. Building trust and working more closely together might help all concerned.

For example, on the agenda for discussions during the visit are defence and security issues. This brings in the question of is Canada doing enough on the Khalistan issue? To be upgraded from just an economic partner to something more serious would be beneficial for both countries over the long term. Canada will need to show that it understands India’s concerns and is willing to built trust and work together to counter terror in all its forms. If that happens, we will all be safer.

Which brings us to the final question, is this trip about domestic Canadian politics or Canada’s international relations? We will know more in a week. The itinerary (Delhi, Agra, Ahmedabad, Mumbai, and Amritsar) is certainly designed with Canadian vote bank politics in mind.

It will be up to Trudeau to show that he is in India not just to please a certain vocal section of his electorate, but rather to build a new relationship with India that benefits all Canadians and Indians. That new mutually beneficial and trust-based relationship, built on a nation-to-nation basis, rather than an ethnicity or religious basis would anyway ultimately be an even bigger vote-getter for Trudeau among Canadians, including farmers, tech companies, film industry, defence, etc.,

Canada’s Minister of International Trade François-Philippe Champagne has said of Canada’s potential relationship with India, “The opportunity in front of us is huge. We want to engage.”

Hopefully, this week, Trudeau will prove that Ottawa means it. And Delhi will move things along a bit faster. Regardless, India and Canada will trade goods, people, and knowledge. And, given the natural compatibilities, things can only get better.

Cleo Paskal is The Sunday Guardian’s North America Special Correspondent.

http://www.sundayguardianlive.com/opinion/12780-things-can-only-get-better-between-india-and-canada