Interview: Cleo on the John Batchelor Show Talking About Modi One Year On

Cleo Joined John Batchelor and Gordon Chang to talk about Indian foreign policy after PM Modi's first year in office.

You can hear it here.

Interview: Cleo on Background Briefing with Ian Masters talking about Climate Change and Geopolitics in the Pacific

"We begin with the worst cyclone or hurricane in the history of the Pacific which struck the island chain of Vanuatu with winds up to 180 miles per hour. Cleo Paskal, a Fellow at the Royal Institute of International Affairs, Chatham House, London, and author of “Global Warring: How Environmental, Economic, and Political Crises Will Redraw the World Map”, joins us from the Pacific island of Tonga to discuss the impact of global warming on the tiny island nations of the Pacific, and the roles of regional powers New Zealand and Australia who are coming to the aid of Vanuatu, as well as the growing influence of China in the region."

You can hear the interview here.  

Interview: John Batchelor Show With Gordon Chang

Cleo Joins Gordon Chang and John Batchelor on the John Batchelor Show to talk about the elections in Sri Lanka and what it might mean for regional relations.

You can hear it here. The segment starts around 10.30. 

Article: World leaders look for new ideas at conclave (Sunday Guardian)

CLEO PASKAL  Goa | 10th Jan 2015

Participants at the India Ideas Conclave: former Prime Minister of Jordan Abdelsalam al-Majali, former Belgian Head of State Anne-Marie Lizin, former Prime Minister of Slovenia Alojz Peterle, India’s Union Minister of State for Finance Jayant Sinha, for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's declared vision is "new thinking, new hope". In late December, as part of the search for new ideas, the India Foundation, a think tank with close ties to the new government, hosted the first India Ideas Conclave in cooperation with the government of Goa. The range of invitees consisted of a wide cross-section of informed input. The speakers included Former Prime Ministers of Bhutan, Jordan, Netherlands, and Slovenia; former heads of state of Belgium and Lithuania; the Sikyong (equivalent of Prime Minister) of the Tibetan Government in Exile; the former secretary general of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation; US Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard; and Indian Ministers of External Affairs, Defence, Railways, Finance, and Power. The approach and the range of ideas discussed give insight into the challenges and promise of this era of change. For example, an oft-repeated message was that many countries in the region want India to play a larger role. This is a now common theme. There is desire regionally, and in some places globally, for engagement with a major power that is not pro-economic policies that are considered damaging to local economies, and are not China. High-level representatives from both Bhutan and Sri Lanka pointed out that India's economic health was of great importance to the region, and when India's economy grows by 3%, theirs grow by 2%. Former Bhutanese Prime Minister Jigme Thinley said that with Modi's arrival a "wind of optimism" was sweeping across the region. He spoke of the inevitability of the leadership role of India in the region, adding, "Large countries only become great countries when they have good relations with smaller neighbours... if even the smallest countries find more security within the EU, why can't South Asia be the same?" The former Prime Minister then asked the room to imagine a South Asian Commonwealth, with full economic integration, adding, "I will even go so far as to suggest shared regional security arrangements, including for natural calamities". He suggested that the first step be to create and promote cooperation within region, then work on relations with others, including China. Former Sri Lankan Ambassador to India (currently Sri Lanka's Ambassador to Washington) Prasad Kariyawasam echoed the analysis, saying India and Sri Lanka's "destinies are intertwined". Noting that Pakistan would block any proposed South Asia economic union, he proposed following Modi's "let's move at a pace everyone is comfortable with" policy, and begin with an eastern economic union including Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal and Sri Lanka. Ambassador Kariyawasam also called for more cooperative solutions in maritime and cyber security, and a need for people-centric collective security. He added that "the region remains hostage to colonial interpretation of what divides us, rather than what unites us" and said it was important "to step back to our roots to find traditional strengths of harmony, inclusivity is an ancient part of the South Asian value system". He evoked Sri Lanka's deep Buddhist ties to India, and called for a closer spiritual union. The cultural and spiritual importance of India in the region was also highlighted by Ambassador O. Nyamdavaa, the former Mongolian Ambassador to Delhi. He chronicled the extensive and ancient ties between Mongolia and India, adding, "India is very important for Mongolia. Indians are our brothers and sisters in dharma." He called for a new role for India in the development of "Buddhism for peace in the world", and proposed India to take a greater role in cultural development in the region. Delegates from further afield made their own cases for more Indian attention, with European delegates saying that India and Europe should focus on technology transfer and cooperation, US delegates saying now is the time to engage with Washington, and Professor H.K. Chang saying that if China and India can work together, the Asian Century will arise. If they can't, it won't. Many made an effort to show an understanding of some of India's priorities. Former Slovenian Prime Minister Alojz Peterle said there was no need to innovate dharma, and economic growth could be sustainable if it was dharma based. He also called for a fundamental rethinking of global governance, saying "we can't play the same game with different cards", and calling for a shift from alliances to true partnerships. Echoing that, German European Member of Parliament Jo Leinen said the World Bank and IMF do not reflect today's world, and certainly not tomorrow's world, and called for UN reform. Former Lithuanian head of state Vytautas Landsbergis quoted Rabindranath Tagore. On the India delegates' side, there was a wide range of proposals. Former Union Cabinet Minister and Harvard Professor Dr Subramanian Swamy noted that India's high interest rates were primarily benefitting foreigners who were borrowing in the West and lending in India. He proposed interest rates to be maxed at 10%, and the Governor of the Reserve Bank of India be sacked. He also called for a national water grid. { The vice chancellor of Delhi University, Professor Dinesh Singh, noted that Indian mathematics was highly advanced 5,000 years ago. In reference to the need for innovation, Vallabh Bhansali of Enam Securities made a plea to Indian parents: "please let your children join start-ups". The vice chancellor of Delhi University, Professor Dinesh Singh, noted that Indian mathematics was highly advanced 5,000 years ago. Part of the reason for this, he said, was that (part of what is now) India was a maritime power that needed and encouraged constant technological innovation. India's scientific decline, he said, was tied to "Indian technology unlinking from knowledge ecosystems". He called for a reintegration of Indian technological innovation with societal, political and economic need. The Indian government ministers listened to all ideas, took notes, took questions, and — speaking as individuals not as government representatives — openly explained their own priorities and constraints. Minister of State for Finance, Jayant Sinha, said, "We need to come up with the next generation of capitalism. The only way is by entrepreneurship and innovation. We can't follow the China model — it is very destructive to the environment, and forced. We need a unique Indian model." But he was clear that this wasn't going to be a revisiting of the Central planning model. "We've had the state as a player on the field, when in fact it should be the umpire. My job is to get you to do it, I can't do it". And then came an idea: "Maybe what we need is a Grand Challenge on solving key problems for India." The Minister of State (Independent Charge) for Power, Coal and New and Renewable Energy, Piyush Goyal, was aware of India's need for power. He said, given current low oil prices, he was willing to sign five-year contracts immediately, but no one was willing to offer at a reasonable price. "Getting energy to the people, etc., is nothing extraordinary. It is something government is supposed to do. One would have imagined India would have planned for energy security many years ago. But when I took office, I found we were literally living on a day-to-day basis." He said he thought he could cease thermal coal imports in 2-3 years, but coking coal would be more of a challenge. He added that he was certainly not closed to nuclear power, but needed to look at lifecycle costs and public sentiment. In the interim, renewables could help rural areas with off-grid and micro-grid solutions so at least people would have lights, phone charge, etc. now. Minister of Railways, Suresh Prabhu, one of the main drivers behind the Conclave, summed up the impetus for the search for new ideas with: "If something has been de-formed, it should be re-formed". There is no question that decades of dubious policies and corruption have affected the health of the Indian body politic. The Government of India is looking for ideas, from the deep past, from the neighbours, from new sources, from the soul. The Conclave was one small part of the ongoing process — many key people weren't there. But the search for ideas continues. It will be difficult, there will be mistakes, and there will be detractors. Many benefited from the way things were. And many are concerned about who will benefit from any change. Many are watching closely. As the former Prime Minister of Bhutan said at the Conclave, "When India sneezes, her neighbours catch cold". The question is, with the right ideas, will it be possible for India to smile, so her neighbours can laugh?

Interview: Cleo Paskal joins Gordon Chang on the John Batchelor Show to talk about China and environmental change

Cleo Joins Gordon Chang and John Batchelor on the John Batchelor Show to talk about environmental change in the Himalayas, in particular Tibet, and what it might mean for China and India.

You can hear it here. The segment starts around 11.00. 

Video: Cleo on John Batchelor Show with Gordon Chang on India and China in the South Pacific

Article: India, Fiji ties can go beyond diaspora (Sunady Guardian)

CLEO PASKAL  Manipal | 15th Nov 2014

An Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) map of the Pacific. rime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Fiji makes sense for reasons that extend far beyond outreach to the diaspora. Fiji is an important nation in the constellation of the 14 states that are known as the Pacific Island Countries (PICs). These include the Cook Islands, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Nauru, Niue, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, the Kingdom of Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu. Each of these countries has a vote in international fora. As a voting bloc, they are proving increasingly important. Additionally, they are often considered "small countries" due to their relatively small populations and landmass. However, given that every small island can claim a minimum 200 nautical mile exclusive economic zone, these are actually very large ocean territories. The Republic of Kiribati, for example, may only have 100,000 in population, but it has an exclusive economic zone the size of India. Not only does Kiribati's zone potentially contain myriad natural resources, it is also strategically located. So much so that China tried to establish a base there to monitor US activity in the region. China has recognised the value of the PICs and has taken advantage of regional disenchantment with the traditional partners Australia and New Zealand to establish a strong economic, and in some cases demographic and strategic, beachhead. For example, Australia and New Zealand's international drive to isolate Fiji following the 2006 coup pushed Fiji closer to China, and today Beijing is one of Fiji's major allies. Just two days after Modi holds his meetings in Fiji, Chinese President Xi Jinping will be in Fiji holding his own mini-summit for PIC leaders. In many cases, the turn towards China was not by choice, it was out of economic desperation. And India would be a welcome new multidimensional partner in the region. The countries of the region don't want aid, they want trade. And there are many sectors in which India can offer partnerships no one else can. These include: Telecoms Currently, communication costs in the PICs are some of the highest in the world, in many cases for no apparent technical reason. In most markets, there are very few providers and it can almost seem as if there is collusion in pricing. Established Indian telecoms are likely to be able to provide much lower cost services — something that would help unleash the PIC economies as a whole, as they could then take advantage of e-economies. Energy Renewable energy is going in across the region, but the installations tend to be high cost Western style projects that may not be the best use of resources. The sort of innovative, comprehensive solutions developed in Gujarat, for example, combining irrigation, solar and agricultural shifts would help the PICs get their infrastructure right from the start, instead of having to consistently try to patch up mismatched and/or inappropriate systems. Sanitation Sanitation in many of the PICs is based on a Western flush model, which may not always be the most appropriate for the soil, water and temperature condition. And in many cases, especially in the outer islands, these technologies are simply not viable because of lack of energy and infrastructure, and so no solutions are provided. For example, currently, the World Bank is building houses on the Tongan islands of Ha'apai with no kitchen or sanitation facilities at all. The innovative and low cost solutions offered by organisations like Sulabh are largely unknown and would be very welcome in the region. Education Given that most PICs speak English, and are currently acquiring a high-level of tertiary education, can often mean taking out ruinous loans to go to Australia or New Zealand. E-educational linkages with Indian institutions would quickly create a new generation of PIC professionals. Medicine  A Maori waka bears striking similarty to a Kerala snake boat. Currently, most pharmaceuticals in the PICs are either expensive Western products or cheap Chinese supplies. There have been proven quality problems with the Chinese drugs. Affordable, trusted Indian pharmaceuticals would be a very welcome entrant to the market. The same is true for medical equipment. Currently, people are dying across the Pacific because entire countries don't have access to things like dialysis machines. And, of course, e-medicine link-ups with Indian specialists would save the PICs money and, more importantly, lives. Conversely, there are regional medical discoveries that Indian pharmaceutical companies might like to research for co-development. For example, the root of the kava plant is an effective and safe anti-anxiety medication. Pacific islanders have been using it for millennia. However, it is a threat to established and lucrative anti-depressants. Perhaps coincidentally, some Western countries have tried to have this low cost alternative banned based on toxicity tests that used the wrong part of the plant. Testing, and if warranted, product development, by Indian labs could resolve this issue once and for all. And kava is only one of many traditional medical innovations in the Pacific. The PICs are already spending money on telecoms, sanitation, energy, education, medicine and much more. In many cases, they are just either paying too much, or are getting subpar quality. There is a definite role for India, and Indian business, in the Pacific. This is not charity; this is trade that is good for both sides. Indian companies are not looking at these markets because they think they are too small, but, as an aggregate, they are sizeable. India can take the lessons learned from having successfully developed the similar "village economics" and apply them abroad. One facilitation option is the establishment of a Micromarket Chamber of Commerce to help Indian businesses and innovators develop these partnerships (and similar opportunities in the Caribbean, Indian Ocean, rural Africa and Latin America). However, for the partnership to work, it would need direct bilateral contact points in each of the PICs, and not be run through middlemen in Fiji, who would raise the end cost and carry their own baggage into the relationship, potentially torpedoing any advantage for the PICs. The bilateral structure might take longer to set up, but it would be infinitely more stable and could add to eventual diplomatic and strategic ties — something that can't be handled via Fiji (China, for example, has major embassies in each of the countries it deals with in the Pacific). The PICs welcome India as a new partner in the region (and some even recognise it as a very old friend — by, for example, pointing out the similarities between Kerala snake boats and Maori wakas). Any healthy relationship must be based on mutual respect and understanding. Visiting Fiji is an excellent first step. The next step is to show the PICs that this is about more than just the diaspora — and that India's hand of friendship is there for all to grasp. http://www.sunday-guardian.com/investigation/india-fiji-ties-can-go-beyond-diaspora

Audio: Interview with Andrew Koltun from Academic Council on the United Nations Systems about Robert Kaplan's Coming Anarchy, Australian strategic positioning and Jonah from Tonga

Summary

In this Special Issues episode of the ACUNS Podcast series, award-winning writer and geopolitical expert, Cleo Paskal, joins co-host Andrew Koltun. Paskal discusses the influences and legacies of Robert Kaplan’s widely-read 1994 article, “The Coming Anarchy”. Specifically, Cleo examines the ways in which Kaplan’s ideas and images of African politics and society affected media approaches to understanding and reporting foreign policy issues afterwards, long after its publication. She also discusses a recent television show, Jonah From Tonga, produced by the Australian Broadcasting Company (ABC). Paskal expresses strong criticisms of this controversial show, which she describes as an example of “Australia’s establishment racism”; she provides insight into the depth of the production’s inappropriate nature and failed satire; and remaining on the subject of how and why “ideas matter”, she addresses the potential implications of the show both for Tongans around the world, and at a national and international level within the dimension of Australian foreign relations and regional cooperation.

You can hear the interview here.

Audio: Interview with Ian Masters on Background Briefing about the UN Climate Summit and strategic context of climate negotiations

Ian Masters, host of syndicated radio show Background Briefing talks to Cleo about the UN Climate Summit, REDD, and strategic implications of the negotiations, and the effects, of environmental change. You can hear the interview here.

Video: Interview with John Batchelor and Gordon Chang on India and ISIS

Video: Interview with John Batchelor and Gordon Chang on Jonah from Tonga

With thanks to the very patient John Batchelor :)

Interview (radio): John Batchelor Show with Gordon Chang

Cleo had an interesting chat with John Batchelor and Gordon Chang about the geopolitical implications of the 'brownface' Australian tv show Jonah from Tonga. You can hear the interview here. It starts at around 10.40. 

Widespread coverage of the HuffPo piece about Jonah from Tonga

There has been widespread coverage on the on the Huffington Post piece about Jonah from Tonga. Including:

Comedian Chris Lilley under fire for 'racist Australian brownface' character as calls for HBO to cancel his series  Jonah from Tonga, Daily Mail, 16 July 2014

Is brownface acceptable in new HBO show 'Jonah From Tonga'? Soraya Nadia McDonald, The Washington Post, 16 July 2014

Jonah from Tonga faces more 'brownface' criticism - is it fair? Priya Elan, The Guardian, 16 July 2014

Calls to dump Chris Lilley's 'racist' Jonah from Tonga from US TV, The Sydney Morning Herald, 16 July 2014

Also, an AAP wire story made the rounds, including:

Network asked to dump 'racist' comedy, New Zealand Herald, 16 July 2014.